Simon Donner

Professor

Research Classification

Climate Changes and Impacts
Prediction and Climatic Modeling
Marine Environment

Research Interests

Climate change science
Climate policy
Science communication
Coastal Ecosystems

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Graduate Student Supervision

Doctoral Student Supervision (Jan 2008 - May 2019)
Adaptation ecologies : circuits of climate change finance, policy, and science in the Pacific Islands (2015)

In order to address the expected impacts of climate change, international development institutions have instigated adaptation projects and policies. These efforts promise to mitigate anticipated harms in vulnerable-to-climate-change social and ecological systems. This dissertation examines the operation and dissemination of adaptation projects and policies in the context of small island states in the Pacific region. It also explores the important role that the pre-eminent development institution, the World Bank, plays in programming adaptation. The research questions explored here are: i) How do finance, policy and science circulate in the name of adaptation? ii) What do the circulation of finance, policy and science achieve for adaptation in Kiribati and Solomon Islands? and iii) Why is the World Bank invested in adaptation, or what does adaptation do for the World Bank and other developmental actors? In answering these questions, I draw from multi-sited primary fieldwork, participant observation, and documentary analysis: at the World Bank in Washington, DC and Sydney, within the public bureaucracies of Australia, Kiribati, and Solomon Islands, and with regional organizations and development partners in the Pacific region. This dissertation posits the emergence of a Pacific Adaptation Complex. The analytical concept of the Pacific Adaptation Concept recognizes the vast institutional arrangements, configurations of expertise, and project technologies that come together to make adaptation happen. Within the Complex, experimental nodes are key, as are multi-directional flows. Yet, I find that, overwhelmingly, flows and investments for adaptation are dogged by persistent stickiness, and a rhetorical attention to mobility and success that is indifferent to practical outcomes. However, the promise of adaptation finance, policy, and science works through failing development institutions and imaginaries, allowing reinvention in an era of development crisis.

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A model analysis of water resource availability in response to climate change and oil sands operations in the Athabasca River Basin (2014)

The Athabasca River Basin faces challenging tradeoffs between energy production and water security as climate change alters the seasonal freshwater supply and water demand from the oil sands mining industry is projected to increase. Effective water management will depend on a physical understanding of the scale and timing of water supply and demand. This dissertation aims to synthesize the impacts of water withdrawals and climate change on streamflow in the Athabasca oil sands region, in order to develop a scientific basis for the management of water resources. The combination of a land surface process model and a hydrological routing model is used to evaluate the influence of water withdrawals and climate change on streamflow under a variety of different scenarios, and to evaluate the adaptation options. Climate warming is projected to be the primary driver of future streamflow availability, with little influence from direct water withdrawals. Seasonal patterns that show a decline in summer flows and an increase in winter flows are consistent with the response of a snowmelt-dominated basin to warming. Increases in the frequency of low flows that are below a threshold of maximum environmental protection suggest that daily bitumen production could be interrupted by up to 2-3 months a year by mid-century. It is also projected that water storage will be required to supplement river withdrawals to maintain continuous bitumen production under the impacts of future climate warming. Based on the model results, a range of water management options are developed to describe the potential tradeoffs between the scale of bitumen production and industry growth, water storage requirements, and environmental protection for the aquatic ecosystems. This physically-based assessment of future water tradeoffs can inform water policy, water management decisions, and climate change adaptation plans, with applicability to other regions facing trade-offs between industrial development and ecosystem water needs.

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Master's Student Supervision (2010 - 2018)
Investigating human impacts to coral reefs in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (2017)

Both local and global threats are affecting the health of coral reefs worldwide. In addition to endangering the livelihoods and source of food for millions of people, threats to coral reefs may result in flattening reefs, which reduce habitat complexity and the ability of reefs to protect shorelines from erosion. This could be particularly detrimental to low-lying Pacific atolls like those found in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). I examined the influence of local human disturbance and heat stress on coral and algal community composition in Majuro and Arno Atolls in the RMI to explore how human disturbance affects coral and algal communities, and how to best characterize those communities. With a population of approximately 30,000 people, Majuro is home to the largest population of all of the RMI's 29 atolls and underwent extensive human modifications after American occupation during World War II. By contrast, Arno is home to fewer than 2,000 people and has remained relatively undisturbed. In June of 2016, I conducted benthic surveys at 25 sites along a gradient of human impacts across the two atolls. At each site at 10m depth, I measured percent cover of coral and algae genera and size-frequency of coral. I also utilized limited historical data to explore how reefs had recovered after a thermal stress event in 2014. In order to estimate human disturbance, I used the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of the nearby coastline, which measures vegetation intensity. The coral and macroalgae composition of sites differed by atoll, mean NDVI, and wind and wave exposure, but not by sea surface temperature. The most degraded sites had low macroalgae cover and were dominated by turf algae, sponges, and cyanobacteria. One genus of macroalgae, Halimeda, was associated with sites that had low disturbance, while another, Hypnea, was correlated with higher disturbance. These results suggest that using macroalgae as an indicator of degradation may mask the influence of local human disturbance on reef community composition. Instead, it is important to consider identifying other indicator taxa and to measure coral and macroalgae cover to at least the genus level.

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Caribbean sea surface temperatures and El Niño : a new outlook (2016)

Mass coral bleaching in recent years has become a recurring event and was suspected to have a relationship with El Niño events. Changes in the understanding of what constitutes an El Niño event prompted further research into the relationship with Caribbean sea surface temperatures due to their impact on corals.Multiple statistical tests were employed to profile the relationship between the individual event types and the Caribbean. Ultimately, a bootstrapping technique determined that Central Pacific El Niño events bear a relationship, while Eastern Pacific event types do not.An attempt to hindcast El Niño events in order to comment on the history of impacts upon the Caribbean was unsuccessful due to a lack of sufficient input data, but a model determining potential locations of data is presented.

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A study on the recovery of Tobago's coral reefs following the 2010 mass bleaching event (2015)

The rise of ocean temperatures globally has become a grave threat to coral reefs, as it is increasing the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching events and post-bleaching coral mortality. The continued existence of productive coral reefs will rely on corals’ ability to undergo recovery. In 2010, Tobago’s coral reefs were exposed to severe heat stress leading to mass bleaching of up to 29-60% of colonies at observed sites. This study evaluated the impact of coral bleaching and recovery of coral communities across three major reef systems in Tobago that differ in their exposure to terrestrial runoff. Assessments were done on the 1) density and composition of coral juveniles to characterise the levels of recruitment, 2) sedimentation rates and composition to understand its potential impact on recovery, and 3) species’ size frequency distributions in 2010, 2011 and 2013 to examine temporal changes among population size structure. In 2013, low juvenile densities were observed (5.41 ± 6.31 m-²) at most reef sites, which were dominated by brooding genera while broadcasting genera were rare. Sediment material, measured in May and June (end of Tobago’s dry season) was mostly terrigenous and deposited at rates below coral stress threshold levels at most sites. Out of 27 species populations assessed between all sites, 4 populations mean colony size had significantly changed by the bleaching event, and only changed 5 populations over the two following years. The few populations that were significantly altered (mainly S. siderea and M. faveolata) after the bleaching saw a rise in small sized colonies, mostl likely as a result of colony fragmentation. This study highlights that recovery via sexually produced recruits among broadcasting species was limited. While sedimentation rates were low, it is likely they are significantly higher throughout the rainy season, thus a long-term sedimentation study is highly recommended. Most coral populations resisted significant alteration from heat stress in 2010. However, given that future thermal stress is projected to become more intense, this study shows that mass bleaching disturbance could lead to decline coral population’s mean colony size, which could affect coral recovery as smaller colonies are less fecund.

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The Central Pacific El Niño and its impact on weather and forest fire patterns in western North America (2012)

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to influence the weather in western North America through teleconnections. Several studies have established a relationship between ENSO and forest fire occurrence. However, a recently discovered variant of ENSO, called Central Pacific El Niño, may cause a different teleconnection and forest fire pattern.Investigating and classifying past El Niño events and their possible influence on weather and forest fire patterns in western North America from 1981-2010 was the objective of this study.The analysis revealed that current El Niño classification methods are suboptimal and that a binary distinction leads to misclassification of events. It, however, confirms that the two types show a different warming pattern as well as different wind and precipitation patterns. These characteristics of the Central Pacific El Niño can cause different extra tropical teleconnections in western North America than the canonical El Niño. Variation of teleconnections within the events and the limited amount of events, however, complicate a clear conclusion. Further, other oscillations such as the Arctic Oscillation play a major role in impacting the climate in western North America. Exploratory analysis of natural forest fires of North America identified hot spots of annual area burned in central Alaska, north-west and central Canada and western United States. Further, singular value decomposition and spatial correlation analysis revealed a different teleconnection response in summer drought patterns over western North America related to the two types of El Niño. The drought pattern is significantly related with forest fire frequency and area burned in certain regions across western North America. A clear connection between the different El Niño types and the forest fire pattern however remains inconclusive.

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Adapting Kiribati, adapting projects : what happens when the World Bank does climate change adaptation? (2011)

In this thesis I analyse the effects of the Kiribati Adaptation Project (KAP). The KAP is an early climate change adaptation project and it has been instrumental in the World Bank’s (the implementer of the KAP) expansion into the climate change agenda. I situate the KAP in the long, colonial, history of developmentalism and draw from critical development and policy studies to understand this project. Although climate change adaptation and development are contradictory in many senses, they have similarities: they are practiced by the same institutions, with the same project management techniques, and they are implemented through projects. I ask the following research questions:1. What work does climate change adaptation do as an organising principle for a project?2. How is climate change adaptation as a policy articulated into grounded practices?3. What are the unintended effects of a novel climate change adaptation project in an archetypical vulnerable place?To answer these research questions I draw from six weeks field work in Kiribati, where I met with KAP project managers and consultants, government officials and other interested onlookers. In chapter three, I observe that the KAP was focused on producing technical reports and technical expertise. I analyse why this is the case and what some of the effects of this are. By participating in the KAP, consultants, funders and other i-Matang relatives of the project gain expertise in the novel, and increasingly lucrative, arena of climate change adaptation. In chapter four, I analyse the ways in which i-Kiribati actors assemble and perform their vulnerability to climate change. Performances are an intentional strategy to gain recognition for the plight of the low-lying and fragile atoll nation. Officials and public servants have little choice but to perform their vulnerability; the Government of Kiribati depends on these finances, but this dependence is uncertain. The KAP is a key site, as it exemplifies the asymmetries of climate change adaptation and mitigation. The KAP expects to create local resilience in the face of an exogenous threat, in the place least able to be resilient, and least responsible for causing the threat.

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