Michael Byers

Fossil fuels are the primary cause of climate change, yet they remain un-named in the Paris Agreement - the current global climate treaty. Despite international cooperation to address climate change, studies find that state governments plan to increase fossil fuel production and extraction over the next decade. There have been many calls from academic and activist communities alike to address the supply and production of fossil fuels globally – rather than the demand or consumption, which the Paris Agreement and UNFCCC currently focus on. Building on these movements, the Fossil Fuel Non- Proliferation Treaty (FFNPT) Initiative has called for a treaty to end the production of fossil fuels. In calling for a “non-proliferation treaty” this Initiative draws a direct parallel between the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and a fossil fuel treaty. This raises many questions about the bold comparison of fossil fuels to nuclear weapons, including the strengths and weaknesses of such a comparison. This paper draws on interviews with FFNPT founders and proponents, as well as the Initiative’s publications, to identify the strategies and limitations of this movement. I identify the Initiative’s key strategies, including rhetorically reframing fossil fuels as an existential threat, building a first-movers club of states, and unifying subnational pressures to end fossil fuel expansion. Moreover, I emphasize the barriers to their approach: realist power-dynamics, the difficulty to secure the interest of great fossil fuel powers, and neoliberal hegemony in international relations. Finally, I turn to cosmopolitan and constructivist theory, and argue that the Initiative is not merely building a treaty – they are seeking to build robust anti-fossil fuel norms based on climate justice appeals in a process I identify and coin as ‘righteous norm-building.’ Drawing on the work of Adam Bower (2017), I explore how this norm-building strategy can bear on great fossil fuels powers that are external to a binding treaty. Additionally, drawing on the work of Lea Ypi (2012), I highlight how this approach builds on and unifies subnational and grassroots climate movements to pressure powerful states from within. Righteous norm-building, though challenging, can help overcome the realist barriers and power-dynamics the Initiative faces.

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The increasing interest in Arctic shipping is seen as an opportunity by some and an environmental threat by others. In 2020, the International Maritime Organization considered a draft ban on the use and transport of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic. While the ban was adopted in 2021, the original draft was drastically modified with a delayed implementation timeline and multiple extensions. This thesis asks why and how these changes were made and considers the roles played by the participants in the process. The thesis takes a qualitative approach by interviewing a diverse range of actors, including individuals from state delegations, environmental non-governmental organizations, industry actors, and Indigenous organizations who participated in the ban’s drafting, negotiation, and acceptance. Interviews were coded using the framework of norm entrepreneurs and norm antipreneurs to analyze how actors either fought for the norm or attempted to resist the norm through framing, grafting, coalitions, and other strategies. The thesis finds that while the norm was ultimately accepted, the norm evolved through the course of the process, with some actors quick to switch sides in the debate. The study considers how these findings question the relationship of agency and structure in the broader literature and concludes by calling for greater research on the role of legality in norm acceptance.

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Since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, studies on the Kremlin’s foreign policy have reached Cold War levels. According to the dominant majority, composed of realist scholars, the Kremlin had executed an expected move by retaliating against Western expansion toward Ukraine. However, despite the apparent influence of realism on the Kremlin’s Ukraine policy, scholars and policymakers neglected to predict the eagerness of the Russian Federation to avoid damaging the existing international legal system, even while systematically violating it. During the two military offensives against Ukraine in less than a decade, Moscow has put great effort into legitimizing its actions with international law. And when it was unable to do so, the Kremlin has sought to avoid challenging the existing international order by identifying its offensive as a “special military operation.” This thesis aims to show that, despite their proactive policy agendas, powerful states are eager to legitimize their actions with international law, and when they cannot, they do not disregard nor challenge it. By drawing on a diversity of examples from four different case studies in which the United States or the Russian Federation played a major role, this study aims to present the commitment of powerful states to follow and preserve the existing international system, for their long-term interests.

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Reading the popular media, it would be easy to think that the Arctic is on the verge of conflict. The narrative reflected in the news is a decidedly conflictual one that stands at odds with the cooperation that has come to characterise the region over the last two decades and has been repeatedly debunked by scholars. Surprisingly, this cooperation has largely continued even following the annexation of Crimea and the imposition of sanctions. This raises an important question: why? By way of response, and in an effort to expand the discussion on the Arctic beyond traditional positivist approaches, neo-Gramscian theory is employed using process tracing. By drawing on a diversity of examples and testing them against concepts drawn from the literature, support is found for the neo-Gramscian explanation: that cooperation in the Arctic is the by-product of a neoliberal hegemonic bloc pursuing their interests in the region.

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The use of airpower capabilities in unconventional warfare has become increasingly common in recent years and with that comes an interesting dichotomy: contemporary conflict is more often conducted through counterinsurgency and counterterror missions focused on winning hearts and minds, however states often respond to these situations using conventional forms of airpower. In the most recent unconventional operations Western forces have increasingly shown a preference for the supersonic fighter jets. While supersonic airpower is certainly useful across a variety of platforms and missions, the breed of unconventional warfare that the international community is confronting today commonly occurs in the context of absolute air superiority in which such supersonic power is significantly less useful than subsonic capabilities. While supersonic procurements were a strategic choice during the Cold War, their use is now a ‘preference of necessity’ since most Western forces do not possess the subsonic fighter capabilities best suited to unconventional warfare. This study considers the influence US procurement preferences have on Allied governments’ air procurements and analyze the perceptions, conceptions and assumptions that shape them. It argues that continued, unquestioned supersonic procurement is informed by the perceptual predispositions held by the procurement elite as to what war means and looks like, and the equipment required to fight one. As a result, not only are procurement preferences towards supersonic jets determined by perceptual predispositions in the United States but they, in turn, result in an ‘only choice’ framework whereby the procurement patterns of allied states are dictated by the perceived necessity to ‘fit’ their procurements into those advocated by the United States because of long-term clientelistic relationships. This relationship is demonstrated by analyzing this pattern of US influence on Canadian military procurement patterns. This study asserts that this clientelistic relationship with the United States has, in fact, hindered Canada’s ability to create and maintain full service air force capability and operability, as budget realities and US pressure have forced allies to focus solely on the procurement of supersonic jets rather than procuring strategically relevant purpose-built aircraft for the contemporary security environment.

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The Russian Federation claims the 2014 Crimea reunification is legal. Ukraine, together with NATO countries and others, deems the annexation illegal. Both states agree on most of the facts, with a few significant exceptions, and both states argue their case in terms of international law, on which they both generally agree. Hence, what is the point of international law? Does it have a discernible and independent effect on international politics? If so, is it in principle possible to observe it? This work attempts to be an analysis of these questions in the reunification/annexation of Crimea by Russia of 2014, to see whether an answer can in fact be given. The aim is to address the position of the Russian legal arguments within current international law, together with its implications for two of the currently most credited theories of international politics.

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The thesis examines challenges and opportunities for the Canadian oil sands industry in the three most important markets: the USA, currently the sole export destination, and the European Union and China, the two largest potential consumers of highly carbon-intensive Canadian bitumen. Gradually falling demand for oil imports and increasing carbon consciousness in the American market threaten to impose constraints on the further development of Alberta`s oil sands and prompt the industry to look for alternative export destinations. Energy security concerns in the European Union amid the crisis in Ukraine, and in China due to political instability in the Middle East trump environmental policies of the two jurisdictions and present an opportunity for the Canadian bitumen industry to tap into these markets. However, the current infrastructure constraints stemming from formidable public opposition to the construction of new oil pipelines render Canada unable to capitalize on this opportunity. The long-term future of Alberta`s oil sands is therefore far from certain.

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Lassa Oppenheim tells us that states and governments become International Persons through recognition only, and exclusively. According to this legally constitutive doctrine, the recognition of governments operates in an intricate system between established states and recipient political entities. In these circumstances existing governments have the power to create international personality and, as a result, yield a high degree of influence and coercion over nascent recipient regimes. It is not surprising, therefore, that countries have repeatedly sought to withhold the recognition of certain governments, or prematurely recognize others, as a means of influencing a recipient regime’s survival or policies. These arguments and practices have been problematic, however, because they treat recognition solely as an act of political or legal coercion, which presumes that recipient regimes may value recognition more then their own contentious domestic or foreign policies. Moreover, viewing recognition solely as an act between states, between governments, and between political entities, obscures the fact that recognition may also be a “social act” whose consequences may extend far beyond a state’s governing apparatus, and into its civil society. Using France’s 2011 recognition of the Libyan rebels as a theoretical test case, this paper analyzes the impact of recognition beyond the legal and into the social realm. In this respect, recognition is treated not simply as a constitutive act of legal rights and duties, but additionally as a symbolic endorsement by one state towards the citizens of another, on the question of the legitimacy of their government. Beginning with a critique of legal recognition’s constitutive impact, and ending with an alternative view of recognition as a social phenomena, this paper asks two central questions: a) Under what circumstances can we expect external recognition to impact a population’s conception of legitimate governance, and b) under what conditions will this impact benefit the goals of the donor and recipient entities?

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This paper examines the politics of continental shelf delimitation and cooperation in the central Arctic Ocean, where media and political rhetoric often point to the possibility for conflict. This analysis is divided into two main sections. First, the current political and legal situation is outlined, with a focus on the Lomonosov Ridge which traverses the ocean floor near the North Pole. While several countries including Russia, Denmark, and Canada may have adjacent and even overlapping claims to the continental shelf in this area, these players have also pursued significant scientific and political cooperation concerning the continental shelf, and an elaborate regime of international law, centred on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, has been largely respected by the players in the region. Second, the paper argues that a number of measures, including many interim approaches, are available to avert potential political disputes. The research examines the feasibility of such cooperation towards a political agreement, which could take the form of a joint or coordinated submission to a UN body, a provisional delimitation arrangement, or a joint development zone. The paper argues that in light of the degree of cooperation so far, as well as the existence of political accords elsewhere which may serve as useful models, the countries in the region should consider preempting disputes over the continental shelf by pursuing an interim political agreement in the central Arctic Ocean.

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This paper intends to explore the complex and often implicit relationship between religion, humanitarianism and secularized politics. The research consists of two major parts. The first chapter analyzes the theoretical approaches to the role of religion and faith-based decision-making in modern international politics. It does that by discussing three particular topics: the neglected connection between religion and IR scholarship, major theories of secularization, and the influences of religion on international politics. The second chapter intends to move the research from the level of philosophical and abstract towards more practical levels of analysis. It focuses on the issue of faith-based humanitarianism and the substantial role faith-based organizations play in international politics. The research points to two related conclusions. First, while acknowledging that secular humanism is a historic civilizational achievement, it can be argued that it is impossible and misleading to strive for clear-cut segregation of religious and secular spheres of life. Second, faith-based humanitarianism is one of the phenomena which increasingly challenge this artificial dichotomy between the sacred and the secular by bringing religion back into public discourse. The paper does not suggest that the dominant paradigm of international relations be abandoned. It rather calls for its modification in order to account for religion which norms and values can be used to support the existing regime of human rights and institutions. Faith-based organizations should be thus seen as a potential channel leading towards the reconciliation of the sacred and the secular.

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Climate change is anticipated to drive millions of people from their homes this century. Estimates indicate that between 200 and 250 million people may be displaced because of rising sea levels, desertification, and increased storm surges working in concert. At present, however, there is no protection regime, institutional mandate, or legal architecture capable of responding to the plight of climatically displaced persons (CDPs). Since 2007, a number of legal regimes have been proposed to provide CDPs with legal assistance. Each regime creates compulsory mandates for states in terms of their assistance to the climatically displaced. Though proposed regimes address the existing legal gaps in protection, they fail to address why states would in fact be willing politically to sign such a treaty. This paper argues that a hard legal framework for CDP protection is not politically prudent. Rather, CDP protection should be pursued through soft legalization. In particular, this paper examines the 1998 Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement and the ways in which their non-binding nature provide a normative framework for the development of a CDP protection instrument. The 1998 Guiding Principles developed in response to the political limitations of the 1951 Refugee Convention and its contemporary application. States have taken increased measures to limit their existing asylum obligations under the legally binding 1951 framework and the non-binding IDP Guiding Principles emerged in direct response to this political resistance. The non-binding nature of the Guiding Principles has not undermined their authoritative force, however, but rather it has served as a powerful tool for protecting vulnerable populations. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature on climatic displacement by conceptualizing how the evolution and application of contemporary protection regimes, as well as their normative frameworks, can shape efforts to protect those who are displaced by climate change.

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Since the mid-1990s, internally displaced persons have outnumbered refugees 2 to 1 in most emergencies. These are dire statistics, but I have been encouraged by recent response developments: the African Union adopted in October of 2009 the Kampala Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Person in Africa, and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region Pact on Security, Stability and Development, which includes the Protocol on the Protection and Assistance to Internally Displaced Persons, and which entered into force in June of 2008. These two hard law documents are based on the 1998 Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, which is considered to be a soft law document.With this foundation, my thesis seeks to examine whether these African responses to internal displacement can have an impact outside the continent’s borders through customary international law. I argue that while it is still early to determine the full influence of the Kampala Convention and the Great Lakes Protocol, these two initiatives are indeed legitimate building blocks toward a generally applicable rule of customary international law. We should anticipate growing reference to them, and to the African experience in general, as issues of internal displacement increase in regions across the globe. However, before this normative framework can become binding international law, we will likely need to see more conventionally powerful states also adopt similar Guiding Principles-based initiatives. To support this statement, I outline the hardening process of soft law and the creation process of customary international law, and find that international legal theory suggests that African leadership can indeed initiate global norm development. I also found, however, that the potential of these two African instruments could not be wholly explained by law, and thus turned to international relations’ theory for supporting analysis.

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